Thursday, March 19, 2009

Stages of Foreclosures

I was just reading some Notes postings on Facebook and one from my friend, Pat Hiban (a Realtor at Keller Williams) stood out. I started reading it and suddenly realized, "You know, he's right!" Here's what he posted:

"If you study any bear real estate market you'll see that they fold out into 3 stages. Or should I say the foreclosure rates on loans come in 3 stages in a real estate recession.
Stage 1- Resale Homes
Stage 2- Builders/Developers
Stage 3 -Commercial

Proof that stage 3 is starting in Howard County is:
Trapeze Restaurant
Urban Chic
Quizno's Sub
Filene's Basement
Rocky Run Tap and Grille
Lone Star Steak House
Tweeter
Expo
Mammoth Golf
Blockbuster Video
Jesse Wong's Hong Kong

then what happens if these spots don't get leased again soon is the owners or the centers start to default on their loans. Enter stage 3 foreclosures."

In Carroll County, we're seeing more companies going out of business too. One of the big jewelry stores, David's in Westminster, has been restructured in an attempt to stay in business. We've lost two big plant nurseries in the past year. A lot of empty buildings in town and the Westminster Mall is a ghost town.

I'm sad about Rocky Run, our son Eric used to work there and it's one of our son Matt's favorite places to eat. We hadn't been there in a while and I hadn't realized they had gone out of business. My husband Bob and another of our sons, Mark, found out that Mammoth Golf was going out of business when Mark went to buy Bob's Christmas present and it was their last day in business! Bob went to check out Expo in their last days to find us a microwave cabinet and their prices were still sky-high. No one I know shopped there. They would go to Expo to look around and get ideas then go to Home Depot and buy what they liked for less. Trapeze was one of my favorite places to eat lunch at Maple Lawn. It was right across the street from my office and the food was great. So sad that they're gone.

So, what can be done? With the changes in real estate over the past couple of years, I no longer have discretionary income to go out to dinner all the time. Not that we were personally keeping these restaurants in business, but enough people stop going out to dinner and the restaurants close! Jobs are lost and then, as Pat said, there are commercial foreclosures - Stage 3.

I don't know the answer. I am really hoping that someone does.

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